With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first board meeting of the year coming up, expectations have changed a lot. Many people thought 2026 would bring lower rates, but new data points to the RBA possibly starting the year with a small rate hike instead.
If you want detailed historical data and live updates on economic indicators, check out our RBA Cash Rate tracker. We cover all the important details as the decision approaches.
Below is the latest forecast for the February decision, along with the confirmed dates for all RBA Board meetings in 2026.
February 2026 Forecast: Hike vs. Hold
Meeting Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Decision Announcement: 2:30 PM (AEDT)
Current Cash Rate: 3.60%
Right now, the outcome of the February meeting is uncertain, as market opinions and economists forecasts do not agree.
The Case for a Hike (to 3.85%)
More economists are now predicting a 0.25% increase in the cash rate.
- Persistent Inflation: Core inflation (trimmed mean) is still high and remains above the RBA's 2–3% target range.
- Economic Resilience: The economy ended 2025 stronger than expected, thanks to a strong job market.
💡 What would a hike cost you?
If the rate rises to 3.85%, your monthly repayments could go up right away. You don’t have to guess; our chatbot can quickly tell you how much more you would pay based on your current loan and interest rate.
The Case for a Hold (at 3.60%)
Some analysts believe the RBA will probably keep rates the same to allow more time for recent changes to take effect.
- Lagged Effects: The full impact of earlier rate increases is still working its way through the economy.
- Consumer Strain: Household spending is still weak, and another rate hike could slow the economy down too much.
The Verdict: There is a lot of uncertainty. Borrowers should be ready for a possible increase to 3.85%, but the RBA might also keep rates steady with a cautious approach.
Don’t Wait for the RBA
While the RBA decides the cash rate, your lender decides your specific rate. You don't have to wait for Tuesday's announcement to protect your position.
Speak with our team today. We can review your loan now to make sure you are not paying extra before any changes happen in the market.
RBA Board Meeting Calendar 2026
The RBA holds eight meetings each year to set monetary policy. These meetings last two days, and the decision is announced on the second day (Tuesday) at 2:30 PM.
